Current and future climatic suitability of Oil Palm in Burundi

Abstract

Palm Oil is an important commodity of global and regional importance. Burundi’s demand for cooking and industrial fat derived from palm oil has been steadily rising. Production at country level is expanding associated with government effort to promote its growing. Despite these ef-forts, climate variability and change in the country has been reported to affect production. How-ever, the extent to which this affects and will continue to affect oil palm suitability in the future remains under researched. Therefore, this study: (i) determined the trend in climate patterns in Burundi; (ii) projected rainfall and temperature patterns in Burundi; and (iii) assessed the future changes in suitability of oil palm in Burundi. A mixed methods approach was applied in data col-lection and sourcing. Climate change projection using statistical downscaling method has been undertaken. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), Mann-Kendal test of significance of trend and linear combinations in GIS were undertaken. Results showed that rainfall is decreasing and temperature is rising at country level. Bubanza temperature had a strong positive trend however Kayanza had a weak positive trend in the period of the study. The spatial distribution of temperature and precipita-tion over Burundi have been statistically investigated for historical and for three periods (2022-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099) under RCP4.5 and 8.5. Under current situation suitable areas for oil palm cultivation were found around Bubanza and Bujumbura. Climate variability and change will most likely have an impact on oil palm (OP) (Elaeis guineensis) distributions. Only Hot/Wet projected a small portion (2.97Km2 RCP8.5) of highly suitable area at Bukinanyana district in Cibi-toke province. The suitable areas 748.88Km2 RCP4.5 in Cibitoke and Bubanza, and 6426.97Km2 RCP8.5 located in Imbo plain, at Nyanza-Lac around the Tanganyika corridor, the low lands in north and within the depression in eastern part of country were also projected by Hot/Wet. Other climate regimes projected small suitable areas. Comparing the current and future suitability, oil palm suitability will be slightly increasing only under Hot/Wet RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. On the other hand, areas of Imbo plain will experience a decline in oil palm suitability over the period (2022-2041). This study has shown that the historical climate of Burundi is variable and oil palm suitability will be also varying with Imbo plain areas being the least suitable. Therefore, it is recommended that government of Burundi through the Ministry of Agriculture, Environment and Livestock and Oil Palm Board undertake awareness creation among oil palm farmers, and design and promote climate responsive adaptation strategies.