Spatial distribution of risk to aggravated assault crime in Kawempe division, Kampala Capital City

Abstract

Crime is a global challenge where the majority of people are victims. Criminologists categorize crimes into felonies, misdemeanors, and petty crimes. Assault crime, which is an example of a felony, is among the violent crimes which happen all over the world. Most aggravated assault crimes committed by criminal gangs in Uganda are not reported to the Police, and they have escalated dramatically over the years, particularly in Kawempe Division of Kampala Capital City. The Uganda Police Force has a system for assessing aggravated assault crime risk, which is more reactive, and this is not efficient because of a lack of spatial analysis component. This study, therefore, aimed at assessing the risk of aggravated assault crime in Kawempe Division using geospatial techniques. Spatial data was collected using a hand-held global positioning system and a key informant guide on crime risk facilities (generators and attractors) and on facilities that minimize crime risk facilities (guardians). This was combined with existing spatial data from different government institutions. Statistical approaches and GIS modeling tools were used to rank parishes based on the risk of assault crimes and to create a crime risk map that evaluated the impact of crime generators, attractors, and guardians. The results show that the parishes with the highest guardian-to-risk facility ratio are Bwaise III (0.727), Makerere III (0.667), Makerere University (0.507), and Kazo-ward (0.440), while the parishes with the lowest are Kyebando (0.031), Makerere II (0.074), Mulago III (0.083), and Mpererwe (0.086). Kyebando and Makerere II parishes had the highest incidences of aggravated assaults by criminal gangs, while Makerere University, Kikaya, and Komamboga parishes had the lowest incidences. The results further indicated that guardians helped to decrease the likelihood of exposure to crime but did not necessarily prevent it from occurring. Furthermore, aggravated assault crimes tended to cluster around risk facilities, according to the routine activity theory. More guardians should be installed in hotspot locations, and the Police should consider integrating a spatial component to crime data to benefit from GIS's spatial analysis capabilities.