Determinants of maize grain export from Uganda (2011-2021)

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of maize grain exports from Uganda to its major six (6) East Africa trading partners using annual panel data for between 2011 and 2021. The study is premised on the theoretical underpinnings of the gravity model developed by Tinbergen (1962) and Pöyhönen (1963). The findings of the study show that the exporter’s GDP and the distance between Kampala and the trading partner’s capital cities have a significantly negative effect on the volume of Uganda’s maize exports. The study found that Uganda's GDP has a negative impact on maize exports. Specifically, a one percent increase in Uganda's GDP leads to a 0.85 percent decrease in maize exports from Uganda, assuming other factors remain constant. As for the distance, a 1 percent increase in the distance between capital cities (km) leads to a 0.130 percent reduction in Uganda's maize exports, holding other factors constant (1 percent significance level). On the other hand, Increasing Population_Exp by 1% results in a 1.33% rise in maize exports from Uganda, with other factors held constant at 5% level of significance. Whereas, increasing importer's population by 1% leads to a 0.018 increase in Uganda's maize exports, with other factors held constant at 5% level of significance. Furthermore, the importer’s GDP has no significant effect on maize exports from Uganda. Overall, these findings provide essential insights for policy formulation, emphasizing the importance of investing and improving transportation infrastructure to reduce logistical challenges and costs associated with exporting maize products. Additionally, policymakers should develop and strengthen policies that support and enhance agricultural productivity to meet the growing demand for maize products associated with population growth both domestically and among Uganda’s trading partners. Lastly, the government should continue to actively engage and participate in regional trade agreements such as the East African Community and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to boost intra-regional trade and increase market access its maize exports.