Dry spell characteristics and adoption of on-farm adaptation strategies among vegetable farmers in Mbale district, eastern Uganda.

Abstract

Dry spells associated with increased climate variability have had devastating consequences on the farming communities that have continuously threatened vegetable production. The study assessed dry spell characteristics and adoption of on-farm adaptation strategies among vegetable farmers in mbale district in Mbale District. It specifically evaluated the impact of climate change on dry spell characteristics (duration and frequency) over various time scales, examined the influence of dry spell characteristics on adoption of on-farm adaptation strategies and determined their impact on yields among vegetable farmers. A cross-sectional survey was adopted to obtain quantitative and qualitative data following snowball sampling of 171 vegetable farmers. Rainfall data was used for a historical period 1993-2023 retrieved from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data as well as a projected timescale of 2025-2055 sourced from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Six for two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). Extreme Value Analysis was employed to determine the duration of dry spells over 2,5, 10, 20 and 30-year return periods while the frequency of dry spells was determined using the Climate Data Tool (CDT). Binary logistic regression was used to determine the influence of dry spells on adoption of on-farm adaptation strategies and multiple linear regression for the influence of strategies on vegetable yields. The study results show that the duration of dry spells was reported to be increasing from the observed dry days in the past with a range of 44-54 and 24-25 to 97-376 and 92-338 under SSP245, 113-294 and 112-303 under SSP585 for MLE and L moments, respectively for both MAM and SON. There was a significant difference between the frequency in historical and future dry spells in the season of MAM compared to SON. The frequency and duration of dry spells influenced adoption of irrigation, mulching and organic pesticides among carrot, climbing beans and onion farmers in the various seasons. Vegetable yields were positively influenced by mulching in climbing beans, irrigation in carrots, and inorganic fertilizer in carrots and onion yields. Similarly, other factors like education level, size of land, access to credit, household size, external workers and gender influenced the adoption of on-farm adaptation strategies and vegetable yields. The study concludes that the frequency of dry spells are likely to increase in the future due to more rainfall variability and these are likely to influence the adoption of the different on-farm adaptation strategies which will impact vegetable yields. The study recommends that farmers should be encouraged to adopt irrigation and inorganic fertilizers as well soil water conservation practices like mulching.