An analysis of the pattern of pedestrian injuries and deaths in relation to land-use, transport and socioeconomic factors in Kampala city, Uganda

Abstract

Background: Research has found variations in how different built environment factors affect pedestrian crash risk. This study extends existing research by examining their micro-level influence at the ward/parish unit in Kampala City, Uganda. Methods: The distribution of pedestrian injuries and deaths in Kampala City, Uganda, by black spots and wards was examined using five years of road traffic crash data (2015-2019). Negative binomial regression analysis was utilized to analyze the contribution of selected built environment variables obtained from relevant government offices to the distribution of pedestrian injuries and deaths at the ward level. A survey utilizing a Likert scale, focus group discussions, and semi-structured interviews were conducted to obtain road users’ perceptions of the built environment's contribution to pedestrian injuries and deaths in Kampala. Point-score, factor analysis, and thematic analysis were then used to examine the perceptions. Results: Overall, 4,746 crashes involving pedestrians were recorded. Of these, 699 (14.7%) were fatal whereas 4,047 (87.3%) were serious. The average rate of pedestrians killed per 100,000 in the 5 years was 156.3 with a median of 31.0. The average rate for pedestrians seriously injured per 100,000 was 1983.7 with a median of 146.2. From the analysis, based on the criteria of locations with at least 10 serious or fatal crashes in 5 years, 46 locations were identified as black spots. The majority (48%) of serious and fatal pedestrian black spots were junctions especially those with traffic lights while 74% were around places with commercial land use as a trip generator. There was also variation in the distribution of serious and fatal injuries. Whereas some parishes like Makerere University and Luzira prisons registered zero deaths in the 5 years, other parishes for example Industrial Area reported rates as high as 1783 per 100,000 population. At the parish level, having a walking disability increased the incidence of fatal and serious pedestrian crashes. In addition, arterial roads and warehouse/depot businesses also increased the incidence of serious pedestrian crashes while local roads on the other hand reduced their incidence. Factor analysis isolated three factors; “Road adjacent trip generators and attractors,” “Actual situation on the road that can increase or reduce chances of being knocked,” and “The presence of essential infrastructure and social services.” Previous involvement in a crash and the highest education level attained were found to be significantly associated with perception scores on all three factors, while gender was found to be associated with only 2. Qualitatively, five major themes were developed: sidewalks/walkways/pavements, pedestrian crossing infrastructure, road attributes, traffic flow, land use planning, and construction zones. Conclusions and recommendations: The study identified different built environment variables that affect fatal and serious pedestrian crash risk and road users’ perceptions towards these variables with implications for land use and transportation planning at the parish/ward level in similar settings. The findings from this study show that roads are not just for moving traffic but also cater to local functions such as pedestrian activities like shopping. The Ministry of Works and Transport in Uganda, Directorate of Engineering and Technical services at the Kampala Capital City Authority and the Uganda National Roads Authority should build and plan roads considering the mix of traffic functions. The predominant function of an area should be considered and therefore appropriate interventions made. For example, areas where many pedestrians are found should be pedestrianized. Other interventions would include walkways and traffic separation in these places.